Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Fallacy of the False Choice




So WMATA paid $200,000 for a """"study,"""" the crux of which was to imagine what the DC area would be like if there wasn't a Metro!

Predictably, since this was done as a PR stunt by those ridiculously overcompensated PR peeps (all Sarles' cronies) who want more money for Metro, the conclusion was, of course, that the DC area would be a traffic hell hole (unlike now) and that huge swaths of downtown would be grim, paved parking lots--if Metro never existed.

Big if.

There are lots of opinions about how much mass transit should be funded, but Metro doesn't help the discussion be presenting a false choice like this. It's a pointless, counterfactual exercise. It's the Drake equation of mass transit, full of unprovable conjecture, aka BS.

Why?

Because there is a Metro (sort of), and even you folks along the Red Line have half a Metro half the time.

What I want to see is an independent study on what the region would be like if the existing Metro was better and worked like a real, live grown up mass transit system. Or, on the downer side, how much Metro's sucking retards the normal benefits one would associate with robust, functional mass transit.

Metro's doomsday "argument" is the same kind of thinking one finds in the "you're either with us, or you're against us" proposition. It's terrible, nonconstructive, black-or-white thinking with the added bonus of a not-so-veiled threat.

There is an argument for transit, but this is not how you make it.

Sadly, the PR stunt seems to have worked on some and here. Sure, they caveat their articles to a degree, but they basically repeat Metro's ridiculous, random, plucked-from-a-nightmare scenario, which is designed to propel this sort of insidious meme (repeated by many on twitter):
or this
It's like Metro is a surly, abusive husband in a spaghetti stained tank top slouching in the glow of a TV set in some dingy apartment drinking too much beer and telling his downtrodden wife how lucky she is to have him.

Hey Metro, try a little charm for crying out loud.

Instead of telling us how much it would suck in a completely made up "without you" scenario, try to step up the service you ostensibly already provide because right now, it sorta sucks to be with you.

Footnote: Why is only the executive summary available to the public? We paid for the whole thing!

Other items:
Loose floor tiles close Clarendon station (ARLnow.com)
A good report on how WMATA governance should change

Comments (50)

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"That's a nice subway you got there. Be a shame if something happened to it."
What a joke Metro is. They can't earn support the normal way so they resort to crap like this.

They're accountable to no one. I want my 16 cents back.
1 reply · active 692 weeks ago
I agree. I wish they had asked each rider whether they would rather have 16 cents or the results of this study. I bet the majority would want the 16 cents.
ANONYMOUS's avatar

ANONYMOUS · 692 weeks ago

I doubt anyone in the "upper echelons" of Metro RIDE Metro (although perhaps other systems and then *think* that Metro is so much classier :P). I love the recent comparisons to NY (where I'm from)- admittedly, it used to be pretty dodgy, but it's cleaned up nicely, provides a RELIABLE service, and does it for a fraction of the price....hmmmm...I'm guessing because there is ACCOUNTABILITY there, although I could be wrong
The more you know...'s avatar

The more you know... · 692 weeks ago

Metro's HQ has a 3 story underground garage, yet it is right next to Gallery Place. Chew on that for a second.
I would love for something to happen to metro. Defund the whole thing so that all the current employees would be fired and we could start over with people who have some respect for their customers. I for one would be willing to go through some pain for long enough to replace all the current employees. How else are we going to get out of the whole we are in. We need to hit the restart button on metro.
What a completely ridiculous counterfactual (if metro didn't exist, I mean, come on). You're totally right about "Metro's doomsday "argument" is the same kind of thinking one finds in the "you're either with us, or you're against us" proposition. It's terrible, nonconstructive, black-or-white thinking with the added bonus of a not-so-veiled threat."

Howzabout a 200k study on improvement to downtown, and better access to the suburbs, if an additional tunnel was made for the blue line through downtown (or the green or yellow line)? We know it would be really difficult to get downtown if metro wasn't there. That doesn't take a study to prove. Maybe a study showing that things could be BETTER if metro got a federal grant or something would maybe help us out...
DC Denizen's avatar

DC Denizen · 692 weeks ago

Would it be possible to organize a "Boycott Metro" day, so that WMATA could imagine what the Metro system would be like without riders?
3 replies · active 692 weeks ago
Red Line's avatar

Red Line · 692 weeks ago

And you'd save them the money and trouble of conducting a study to see what that would be like.
"WMATA could imagine what the Metro system would be like without riders?"

Their response: "See what you awful riders" (note they wouldn't say customers) "are doing to our system? It runs fine when there aren't people!"
Unfortunately, that actually is true.
AvgJoeDC's avatar

AvgJoeDC · 692 weeks ago

I drive on weekends as opposed to metroing a lot of the time because of the ridiculous delays and waits on the weekend. I can't be the only one. I too would love to see a study to see how having a poor mass transit system compares to having a good one.
1 reply · active 692 weeks ago
Fifteen years ago I rode it often on weekends. Now ride it twice in a weekend (somewhere and back) is a rarity.
What would life in DC be like without Metro? Hmmm. Tough one. My guess is that eventually a system that actually worked would be put in place. A privately owned transit system that would see a public need, meet it, and make a profit all at the same time. A system that would be preferable over walking, driving, staying at home, or biking. Well, one can dream.
5 replies · active 692 weeks ago
The whole private system argument is somewhat naive, I hate to say. Remember, the system gets 300 million a year in public funding... take that away and god knows how much we'd be paying in fares...
Well, I'll add to that dream a $200K study on the matter.
hrh king friday 13's avatar

hrh king friday 13 · 692 weeks ago

Tokyo, Hong Kong MTR, several eurpoean cities use private companies to operate thier metro systems. For $200K I can compile a report on how that's working out for them and compare it to DC's shit boxes for ya?
Operating is not the same as planning, designing and constructing.

I would also add that there's nothing preventing a private company from stepping up now and bringing plans and ideas on how to improve the region's transportation. Thus far, all i've seen are HOT lanes and toll roads, so color me unconvinced that a private entity would be any more capable of delivering service at a reasonable cost than a public system is.
hrh king friday 13's avatar

hrh king friday 13 · 692 weeks ago

Maintenance and operations is at the core of Metro's problems! Nobody is talking about P&D for new tunnels in DC (although for the record, NYC's public transit system was first constructed by private companies so let's not act like it can't be done in the 21st century).

Would you be willing to be colored "informed" by a Metro study or a WMATA RFP for transitioning into a privatized or public-privatized partnership? I think it would be naive to expect a private company to waste money (unllike Metro) on plotting out such a proposal without some indication that the system is obtainable.
It's so much easier to pay for a report than to actually do the work of rebuilding the subway.
former employee's avatar

former employee · 692 weeks ago

Office of Inspector General needs to be investigated for allowing tax dollars for this kind of BS study. This office is to blame for waste abuse and fraud. My advice is free-first, start firing OIG staff and move office to another location Currently it is the fox guarding the hen house. Board of Directors that is your job. Also, fire the top mgmt. and use them as a mop to clean the rest of the mgmt. Then hire qualified, let me say that again qualified people to run the system.
Spend $200K on enforcing some basic F'n rules and we'd have a much nicer subway.

FIRE SARLES.
3 replies · active 692 weeks ago
Nobody wants the job, if Sarles gets fired, David Lacosse might get promoted and then we're really screwed.
former employee's avatar

former employee · 692 weeks ago

Sarles did not want the job (that is what he said at first) but greed was his deciding factor. First, I don't think any qualified person, who has respect for him/herself would want this job. Metro mgmt. is so corrupt that it is impossible to run the system. Then you have the union-collective bargining agreement with the company. Metro labor dept. who i think is the dumbest of all, can not negotiate a contract, handle arbitration. Then you have HR dept that permits mgmt. to hire their "buddies" as union supervisors. No way in hell would a well qualified, respected person would want this job.
*SHUDDER* GOOD GOD don't ever put that thought in my head again!!!!
Gray Area's avatar

Gray Area · 692 weeks ago

Metro is W
Metro continues to say they have to increase fares because they don't have any money. Yet they can spend 200k to fund this idiotic study? How the hell is that justifiable. I'll try to ask Dr. Gridlock in his Monday morning ass kissing sessions. The post made mention of this, but OF COURSE left out the price tag! This is the biggest waste of money I've ever seen. Want to have an independent audit? Lets have one to determine how much money is WASTED by this organization on a yearly basis.

FIRE DAN STESSEL!!!!!
1 reply · active 692 weeks ago
ANONYMOUS's avatar

ANONYMOUS · 692 weeks ago

Dr. Gridlock won't answer you, he'll either blame you for being upset (i.e. it was only 16 cents a person- damn it I want my money back) or talk around the question and paint it as though metro has a halo on their head :(
Even more absurd is that they took BUSES out of the equation. Really now? Every major city in the country (and most minor ones) have bus systems. Imagining DC without subterranean rail is one thing, but imagining it without ANY public transportation at all is so absurd I can't even imagine why someone would think it wasn't a waste of time. I mean cripes, I used to live outside Seattle (a supposed public transportation nightmare town) and took an express bus in and out of the city every day. It was fantastic. Much better than my daily Metro slog ...
This was Fraud, Waste, AND Abuse.
"Why is only the executive summary available to the public? We paid for the whole thing!"

Darn right. What about FOIA/Public Access to Records? And can you get documents related to what they told these guys to study and why?
4 replies · active 692 weeks ago
Metro has some BS jurisdiction where they aren't technically part of anything and are overseen by NOBODY, even the NTSB.

Seriously, all the NTSB can do is give them SUGGESTIONS and guidelines...
former employee's avatar

former employee · 692 weeks ago

the compact--sovergin immuntiy protects Metro from being sued. That will never be taken away. Metro is so screwed up they would be broke from lawsuits.
However, Mr. Unsuck does file FOIA-style requests as part of his work on the blog. See this post from a couple of weeks ago, for example.
Yes, and they routinely tell him they aren't going to bother.
hrh king friday 13's avatar

hrh king friday 13 · 692 weeks ago

THANK YOU, UNSUCK!!!! I saw this stupid "study" pop-up on so many other DC blogs who swallowed it whole as a reason for dismissing opinions critical of Metro. What's wrong with those idiots? They should be demanding thier $200K back, they should be calling for the heads of Metro Board members who approved this marketing campaign, they should be occupying union and Metro offices demanding an adequte public transit system, but they won't becuase of two words: Stockholm Syndrome.

Imagine if Jet Blue spent a federal grant to show to argue that, hey, if we didn't keep people stranded on the tarmac for over 8 hours, then they'd have to spen days WALKING to thier destination. Yes, Stessy, IT'S LIKE THAT. And I want my money back.
danstiller's avatar

danstiller · 692 weeks ago

WMATA had done this kind of study in 1989, and again in the late 1990s. They wanted to remind you WMATA wnats your money. What a waste!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anyone know how to make online petitions?
Maybe we can draft one to fire Dan Stessel, Sarles, David Lacosse, and Jackie Jeter. I think its needed.

Occupy WMATA headquarters?
1 reply · active 692 weeks ago
Occupy WMATA headquarters is a great idea! Big a date, advertise and let's do a big royal sit-in. I'll be there.
I liked how Mr. Suckup defended it ... that the study was only 16 cents per rider. How many here would rather have 16 cents per rider if they could?
UnSuck Fan's avatar

UnSuck Fan · 692 weeks ago

Hey WMATA,

You DO exist! Come back to reality and FIX THE DAMN THING ONCE AND FOR ALL!!
I would add that the argument against the study would be better served if the picture linked to from the "paved parking lots" wasn't to the present site of the nation's largest downtown mixed-use project. Just leave that one alone.
And my fare will go up because they don't have any money. Wonder why.
3 replies · active 692 weeks ago
Not only that but your rush hour fare when you wait half an hour.
Thanks for nothing's avatar

Thanks for nothing · 692 weeks ago

Kara, I bet you were on the Red Line this AM. 30 minutes stuck between stations to get from Fr. Heights to Clev. Park all because of a single malfunctioning train.

I've ridden many different subway systems and never have I heard of it taking 30 minutes to clear or reroute around one broken down train. Ridiculous. I'm going to seriously contemplate saying "adios" to metro tonight, but looking at just the past month's worth of BS and delays I don't see any reason why I should continue to ride/wait/sit/lurch/jerk/etc this system.
Yes, I was on the Red this morning. At first I was glad that the PID said it was only 3 minutes to my train. Then it went to no trains having a time. After awhile a train came in on the other side they announced something which of course got garbled. It was not until, oh, 10 minutes in until the PIDS finally said anything ... although it was interrupted to tell me which elevators were out. Someone who was Deaf (like my spouse) would have had no clue what was going on.

Okay, so metro drops the ball on transportation, we know that. Is it to much to ask that they at least communicate?
Anti-TB Guy's avatar

Anti-TB Guy · 692 weeks ago

"It's like Metro is a surly, abusive husband in a spaghetti stained tank top slouching in the glow of a TV set in some dingy apartment drinking too much beer and telling his downtrodden wife how lucky she is to have him."

MANY THANKS to whoever writes this stuff -- I got a good belly laugh out of that! ;-)

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